experiments

Normal Distribution of Sample Means

Normal Distribution of Sample Means

From Statistics Libre Text:

For samples of size 30 or more, the sample mean is approximately normally distributed, with mean μX = μ and standard deviation σX = σ/√n where n is the sample size. The larger the sample size, the better the approximation.

The above is a pretty typical assertion in statistics texts. The derivation must be a doozy, it’s never shown, and there’s rarely a discussion of the Central Limit Theory itself.

Risk Limiting Audits

Risk Limiting Audits

In 2020, when one particular political faction created a controversy by claiming that national elections might be rigged, I decided to check into how my state, Colorado, audited the results of elections.

Bonus Normal Distribution Post!

Bonus Normal Distribution Post!

From the Wikipedia article on Cauchy distributions:

When U and V are two independent normally distributed random variables with expected value 0 and variance 1, then the ratio U / V has the standard Cauchy distribution.

Since I’m limbered up by making linear combinations of Cauchy distributions, I feel like this one is easy.

Edit 2025-07-20: Dr Drang mentioned this post! He did an analytical solution and found my curve fit wanting! That’s cool, I violated the assumptions, so it should be wrong!

Stable Distributions

Stable Distributions

Wikipedia says, about stable distributions:

a distribution is said to be stable if a linear combination of two independent random variables with this distribution has the same distribution, up to location and scale parameters.

Iron, Cobalt and Nickel

Iron, Cobalt and Nickel

I bought a couple of 10mm cubes, one of Nickel, one of Cobalt, because I read that cobalt and nickel are ferromagnetic, strongly attracted to magnets. I could not distinguish the two cubes based on density. I’m documenting my effort to distinguish them based on magnetic attraction.

My son, Everett, helped me with experiment design and execution.

Marksman Probability Puzzle

Marksman Probability Puzzle

Found a puzzle on the notorious Futility Closet web site.

Here’s Futility Closet’s puzzle. Mr or Ms Closet decided to call the puzzle “Gun Control”. I don’t know if they chose the title to skirt controversy or something.

Problem Statement

Marksman A hits a certain small target 75 percent of the time. Marksman B hits it 25 percent of the time. The two of them aim at that target and fire simultaneously. One bullet hits it. What’s the probability that it came from A?